Mayes Middleton Leads Chip Roy 48%-39% in Texas AG Runoff

Mayes Middleton Leads Chip Roy 48%-39% in Texas AG Runoff
Political Editor Savannah Witt
Published May 15, 2026

Mayes Middleton leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy 48 percent to 39 percent among Republican voters in the latest University of Houston Hobby School poll, with 13 percent undecided, heading into the May 26 Republican primary runoff for Texas attorney general. Middleton captured 39.2 percent in the March 3 primary while Roy took 31.7 percent, forcing the two into a head-to-head contest. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick endorsed Middleton on May 5, giving the state senator from Wallisville a clear institutional boost in the final stretch.

Patrick Backing Shifts Momentum Toward Middleton

Patrick's endorsement arrived less than three weeks before the runoff and immediately amplified Middleton's position. The lieutenant governor, who wields significant influence over the Texas Senate, chose Middleton over Roy despite Roy's record as a U.S. representative. Middleton has leaned into the support by branding himself "MAGA Mayes" and highlighting his alignment with former President Trump. Heavy ad spending funded in part by Middleton's own contributions has kept his name dominant on television and digital platforms across the state.

Roy Launches Direct Attacks on Experience

Roy's campaign responded to the polling deficit by airing contrast ads that question Middleton's qualifications. The spots feature Roy stating, "I'm a real lawyer. He's not," and stress the need for a practicing attorney in the attorney general's office. Roy, who served as a federal prosecutor before Congress, positions himself as the candidate with courtroom experience. The ads mark a sharper tone in the closing days and aim to erode Middleton's lead by focusing on legal credentials rather than ideology.

2026 U.S. House Control · PARTY TO WINNov 2, 2026

2026 U.S. House Control

DemocratDemocrat78%
RepublicanRepublican22%

Primary Results and Current Polling Snapshot

The March primary produced no majority winner, sending Middleton and Roy into the runoff. The University of Houston poll released this month shows Middleton expanding his advantage since then.

CandidateMarch PrimaryMay UH Poll
Mayes Middleton39.2%48%
Chip Roy31.7%39%

Middleton's self-funding and advertising edge appear to have widened the gap. Roy trails in both name recognition and resources at this stage.

November General Election Path

The runoff winner will face either Joe Jaworski or Nathan Johnson in November to replace outgoing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running for U.S. Senate. Both Democrats have already secured their party's nomination. The May 26 vote determines which Republican carries the party's banner into the general election against one of those two opponents.

Think you know who's going to win?
Trade on real election outcomes.
Learn More Deposit $20, get $50 to trade.
Powered by