Ted Cruz Says Talarico Has Real Chance to Beat Paxton

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico raised more than $30 million in the second quarter of 2026, more than triple the roughly $9 million collected by Republican Ken Paxton in the same period. Sen. Ted Cruz stated on July 9 during a call-in to Sean Hannity’s radio show, guest-hosted by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, that Talarico has a real chance to win the U.S. Senate seat. Cruz described the Democratic nominee as charming enough to draw support from voters who are not closely following the issues.

Cruz Acknowledges Talarico Appeal in Tight Contest

Cruz’s assessment came after Talarico secured the Democratic nomination and Paxton won the Republican primary by defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May runoff. The comments placed the race in a competitive light ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026, general election. Cruz did not endorse any change in strategy but noted Talarico’s personal qualities as a factor that could matter with less attentive voters.

The statement aligns with recent survey results that show the candidates essentially even. A June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll placed Paxton at 43 percent and Talarico at 42 percent. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted around the same time found the two tied at 47 percent each.

Talarico Fundraising Outpaces Paxton by Wide Margin

Talarico’s Q2 total pushed his campaign past $70 million raised since September 2025, drawn from more than 1.5 million individual donations. Paxton’s lower haul in the same quarter left him with far less cash on hand for the final stretch. The gap gives Talarico resources for sustained advertising and field operations across the state’s major media markets.

Campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show the disparity in external contributions. Talarico’s small-donor base has produced steady inflows that exceed typical Texas Senate totals at this stage. Paxton has relied more heavily on larger checks and established Republican networks.

November 3 Deadline Sets Final Campaign Phase

Both campaigns now face a compressed timeline to the general election. Early voting begins in mid-October, leaving roughly four months for messaging and voter contact. Talarico’s cash advantage allows heavier investment in digital and television advertising, while Paxton must decide how to counter the Democratic nominee’s visibility.

The race remains one of the most closely watched contests on the 2026 map. Any sustained lead by either candidate in the coming months will shape national party spending decisions.