Political Editor Savannah Witt
Published Jul 12, 2026
The June 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Ken Paxton at 43 percent and James Talarico at 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup. On July 9, 2026, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz told listeners on Sean Hannity's radio show, guest-hosted by Gov. Greg Abbott, that Talarico holds a real chance to flip the seat in the November 3 general election.
Polling Places the Race Inside the Margin of Error
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey captured a contest decided by one point. Paxton, the Republican nominee and sitting attorney general, held a narrow edge that fell within the poll's margin of error. Talarico, the Democratic nominee and state representative, matched him closely enough to keep the outcome in doubt through Election Day.
Cruz described the current spread as a one- or two-point margin. He noted that Talarico's personal style could draw support from voters who follow the race less closely. The comments came during an appearance on the nationally syndicated program and were reported the same day by the Texas Tribune.
Talarico Posts Record Fundraising Lead
Talarico raised more than 30 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026. That total nearly tripled the amount collected by Paxton in the same period and set a new record for a U.S. Senate candidate in Texas. The surge followed Talarico's March primary victory over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
The fundraising gap gives Talarico additional resources for television and digital advertising in the final months. Paxton has relied on his statewide profile as attorney general, yet the cash disparity narrows his traditional advantage in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
| Candidate | Q2 2026 Raised | June 2026 Poll Share |
|---|
| James Talarico (D) | $30+ million | 42% |
| Ken Paxton (R) | Approximately $10 million | 43% |
General Election Timeline and Next Steps
Both nominees secured their party lines earlier this year. Talarico defeated Crockett in the Democratic primary. Paxton won the Republican nomination without a serious intra-party challenge. The candidates now prepare for a November 3, 2026, ballot that will decide control of the seat currently held by Cruz.
Early voting begins in mid-October. Campaigns on both sides will focus spending on the state's largest media markets while monitoring whether the tight polling numbers hold through the fall.
