A New York Times/Siena poll released June 30 found Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton tied at 47 percent each among likely voters. The survey of 656 likely Texas voters, conducted June 19-27, carried a margin of error of about 4.5 percentage points. This deadlock arrives five months before the November 3 general election for the open U.S. Senate seat.
Poll Sample Captures Tight Contest
The New York Times/Siena results mark one of the strongest showings for a Democrat in a Texas statewide race in recent polling by the outlet. Respondents broke evenly despite the state's long Republican dominance in federal contests. The sample focused on likely voters, a group that typically favors the GOP in off-year cycles.
Turnout models in the poll accounted for historical voting patterns and current registration trends. Even with those adjustments, neither candidate pulled ahead. The tie reflects divided preferences on issues ranging from border security to education funding.
Other Surveys Show Similar Deadlock
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll from June also produced a near tie, with Paxton at 43 percent and Talarico at 42 percent. That survey used a comparable likely-voter screen and reinforced the competitive nature of the race. Multiple polls now point to a contest decided by turnout rather than structural advantage.
These consistent findings contrast with earlier cycles where Republican nominees held double-digit leads. The narrowing gap coincides with Paxton's ongoing legal and ethical questions that have drawn sustained attention. Talarico, a state legislator from Austin, has used the campaign to highlight public education and health care access.
