Paxton Leads Cornyn in Final Texas Senate Runoff Polls

Recent surveys give Ken Paxton a narrow advantage over John Cornyn in today's Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate. Polls from the final days showed Paxton ahead by margins such as 48-45 percent or 53-43 percent. The winner advances to face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November.

Primary Vote Totals Set Up Tight Runoff

John Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002 and seeks a fifth term. Ken Paxton, attorney general since 2015, entered the race on April 8, 2025. On March 3, 2026, Cornyn took 42-43 percent of the Republican primary vote while Paxton received 40-41 percent and state Rep. Wesley Hunt captured roughly 13-14 percent, according to Ballotpedia. No candidate reached a majority, sending Cornyn and Paxton into the May 26 runoff.

The March results reflected a divided Republican electorate. Cornyn's long tenure failed to deliver a first-round win despite his establishment backing. Paxton's challenge capitalized on conservative dissatisfaction with the incumbent's record.

Trump Endorsement Arrives Days Before Voting

President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton in the runoff, handing the challenger a late boost. The endorsement came after the initial primary and aligned with Paxton's positioning as the more aggressive conservative option. Campaign observers noted increased energy for Paxton in the closing week.

Cornyn continued to emphasize his legislative experience and committee roles. Paxton highlighted his record as attorney general and criticism of federal policies. The endorsement shifted some late momentum toward the challenger in a race already marked by heavy outside spending.

More Than $135 Million Spent on Negative Ads

The contest ranks among the most expensive Senate primaries in recent cycles. Reports placed total spending above $135 million, with extensive negative advertising on both sides, according to Texas Tribune. Super PACs and outside groups poured resources into television and digital spots attacking each candidate's record.

Final-week closing arguments focused on electability and loyalty to conservative priorities. Cornyn stressed his ability to deliver federal funding and work across the aisle. Paxton portrayed himself as the stronger fighter against Washington priorities. The volume of ads left few Texas Republican voters untouched by the barrage.

General Election Matchup Takes Shape

The runoff winner faces Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state representative, in the November general election. Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, yet the primary battle exposed divisions that could affect turnout and messaging. Talarico's campaign has already begun positioning against both finalists.

Today's result determines the Republican nominee for a seat held by Cornyn since 2002. A Paxton victory would mark a significant shift toward the party's activist wing. A Cornyn win would affirm the incumbent's resilience despite the challenge.