The New York Times and Siena College poll conducted June 19-27 showed Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 47 percent each in the race for Texas's open U.S. Senate seat. A separate University of Texas at Austin Texas Politics Project survey from June placed Paxton ahead 43-42. The near-even results in a state Republicans have dominated for decades force both campaigns to recalibrate strategies with five months left before the Nov. 3 election.
Two Recent Surveys Capture the Tight Margin
The NYT/Siena poll sampled likely voters across the state and found identical support levels for the two nominees. The UT Austin poll, which used a similar likely-voter screen, showed Paxton with a one-point edge inside the margin of error. Both surveys were released in late June and reflect voter sentiment after the primaries concluded.
These figures stand out because Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. A sustained tie or narrow Democratic lead would require Paxton to defend every traditional Republican stronghold while Talarico expands turnout in urban and suburban counties.
| Pollster | Field Dates | Paxton (R) | Talarico (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Siena | June 19-27, 2026 | 47% | 47% |
| UT Austin Texas Politics Project | June 2026 | 43% | 42% |
Primary Outcomes Reshaped the General Election Field
Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. Both winners now face general-election voters who did not participate in those earlier contests.
The primary results eliminated two well-known figures and left Paxton and Talarico to define the race on their own terms. Cornyn's long Senate tenure and Crockett's high profile in Congress no longer anchor either party's message.
