Political Editor Savannah Witt
Published Apr 29, 2026
Greg Abbott holds a 44%-38% lead over Gina Hinojosa in a new University of Texas poll of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race, with 18% of voters undecided. The six-point margin falls within the survey's 2.83% margin of error and signals potential Democratic gains among independents despite the race's Solid Republican rating. Economic discontent, including surging gas prices, drives the tightness six months from Election Day.
Independents Break for Hinojosa
Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott 30%-24% among independent voters, with 35% offering no opinion. This Democratic edge in the swing group underscores Abbott's vulnerability as incumbents often rely on base turnout. The Texas Politics Project analysis ties the shift to voter frustration over inflation and energy costs.
Gubernatorial Trial Ballot Results (April 2026)
| Candidate | Support |
|---|
| Greg Abbott (R) | 44% |
| Gina Hinojosa (D) | 38% |
| Haven't thought enough | 18% |
YouGov polled 1,200 registered voters from April 10-20 for the Texas Politics Project. The question pitted the nominees head-to-head: "If the 2026 election for Governor were held today, and the candidates were Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, who would you vote for?"
Abbott's Approval Dips Near Water's Edge
Abbott's job approval stands at 46% approve to 43% disapprove. His favorability splits evenly at 46% favorable and 44% unfavorable. These underwater numbers for a Republican incumbent in deep-red Texas highlight the drag from national headwinds like gas prices and foreign conflicts.
Abbott Job Approval and Favorability
| Metric | Approve/Favorable | Disapprove/Unfavorable |
|---|
| Job Approval | 46% | 43% |
| Favorability | 46% | 44% |
Poll toplines show party identification as Republicans 50%, Democrats 40%, Independents 10%. Hinojosa's 59.9% primary win gives her momentum, while Abbott cruised to 82.4%, per Ballotpedia.
Post-Primary Test Reveals GOP Soft Spots
Both candidates emerged from March primaries as nominees. Libertarian Pat Dixon and independent Jenn Mack Raphoon qualified for the November 3 ballot but drew no poll attention in this trial heat. The Texas Politics Project toplines capture a post-primary snapshot where Abbott's lead shrinks from his 2022 54.8% victory over Beto O'Rourke.
Texas remains a GOP stronghold. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the race Solid Republican. Still, the poll's 18% undecided pool offers Hinojosa room to grow, especially if economic woes persist. Rising gas prices, noted in the pollster's blog, hit Texas drivers hard and erode support for the incumbent.
Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin, positions herself as a fighter on education and healthcare. Abbott touts border security and school choice wins. The trial ballot ignores third parties, but real ballots will test splinter votes.
Economy Fuels Democratic Hopes
Texas voters sour on the economy amid war in Europe and OPEC cuts pushing pump prices past $4 per gallon in major cities. The Texas Politics Project links these pressures to Abbott's softening numbers. Democrats need 38% of independents and ticket-splitters to force a recount; Hinojosa already claims 30% there.
Historical context matters. No Democrat has won statewide since 1994, but Abbott's 2022 margin narrowed to 11 points from 13 in 2018. This poll, if directionally accurate, points to further compression.
Campaigns now pivot to TV ads and ground games. Abbott raises funds effortlessly; Hinojosa courts national donors eyeing Texas as a pickup opportunity. Voter registration deadlines hit October 5, with early voting starting October 20.
Next major poll drops in June from the University of Houston Hobby School. The November 3 general election decides if Abbott secures a fourth term or Texas flips blue for the first time in three decades.
