New Poll Puts Ken Paxton 3 Points Ahead of John Cornyn With

Ken Paxton leads John Cornyn 48% to 45% in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, according to a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll published Tuesday — a margin that falls inside the survey's error range, making it a statistical dead heat. Early voting opens May 18, giving both campaigns less than two weeks to move a race that has resisted movement for months.

Cornyn Is Underwater With His Own Party's Voters

The favorability numbers are the sharpest problem for Cornyn. The UH Hobby School data shows 50% of likely GOP primary runoff voters view Paxton favorably against 43% unfavorable. Cornyn sits at 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable — net negative with the electorate he needs to win. That's a structural disadvantage that money alone doesn't fix.

The poll was conducted April 28 through May 1, surveying 1,200 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Seven percent remain undecided, a pool large enough to decide the outcome either way.

On electability, the poll offers Cornyn no advantage. When asked which candidate would fare better against Democrat James Talarico in November, respondents split exactly 43% to 43% — the argument that Cornyn is the safer general-election bet isn't landing with the voters who will actually cast ballots in the runoff.

Wesley Hunt's Voters Are Breaking for Paxton

The March 3 primary result set up the current dynamic. Cornyn led Paxton narrowly, 41.9% to 40.7%, with Wesley Hunt finishing a distant third at 13.5% — not enough for any candidate to clear 50% and force the runoff. Hunt's voters are now the most contested bloc in the race.

Rice University Baker Institute analyst Mark Jones, a co-author of the UH poll, found that Hunt's former supporters are breaking toward Paxton 54% to 35%. If that preference holds through Election Day, it gives Paxton a meaningful structural edge in a race where every point matters. Cornyn's campaign has not demonstrated a clear path to flipping those voters.

The top issues driving GOP runoff voters, per the UH Hobby School poll, are immigration and border security at 33%, inflation and cost of living at 25%, and election integrity at 22%. That issue profile fits Paxton's campaign posture better than Cornyn's, and it helps explain why the incumbent senator has struggled to consolidate his party's base despite a massive financial advantage.

Cornyn Has the Money. It Hasn't Been Enough.

The spending gap between these two campaigns is not close. Cornyn raised approximately $9 million in Q1 2026 to Paxton's $2.2 million — a fourfold advantage. The pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority raised $9.5 million in the same period, while the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC brought in $2.1 million. Heading into the final stretch, the Cornyn-aligned PAC held nearly $2.9 million cash on hand against roughly $1 million for Paxton's outside group.

The broader race has already shattered records. Ad spending topped $110 million heading into the March 3 primary, making it the costliest Senate primary in history. The runoff air war has been comparatively quiet — just $5.7 million in runoff ad spending as of late April, almost entirely from Cornyn and allied groups — but that figure was expected to climb sharply as Election Day approaches.

A pro-Cornyn operative described the contest to CNN as a "jump ball" or "coin toss" — a notable concession given Paxton's primary night prediction of a double-digit blowout that never materialized.

Trump's Silence Is Its Own Variable

The most consequential non-event in this race remains President Trump's refusal to endorse. Trump promised an endorsement but let the March 17 withdrawal deadline pass without one, tying his decision to the fate of the SAVE America Act. Paxton had conditioned any withdrawal on the Senate eliminating the filibuster to pass the legislation; Cornyn, a longtime filibuster defender, signaled openness to reforming or bypassing it.

The standoff has left both candidates without the endorsement that could have settled the race. Jones warned that the depth of the intra-party fight creates a real unification problem after May 26, with some Republican voters potentially sitting out November, casting a protest vote for Libertarian Ted Brown, or crossing over to vote for Democrat James Talarico.

That matters because the general election is not a foregone conclusion. Cook Political Report rates the seat "likely Republican" but has said it would move the rating to "lean Republican" if Paxton wins the runoff. Talarico raised more than $27 million in Q1 2026, which his campaign called the largest haul ever by a Senate candidate in the first quarter of an election year. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat since 1988.

Metric	John Cornyn	Ken Paxton
UH Hobby Poll (May 5)	45%	48%
Favorable / Unfavorable	47% / 49%	50% / 43%
Q1 2026 Fundraising	~$9 million	~$2.2 million
Allied PAC Cash on Hand	~$2.9 million	~$1 million
March 3 Primary Result	41.9%	40.7%
Wesley Hunt voter preference	35%	54%

Early voting runs May 18 through May 22. Election Day is May 26.