61% of Texas Voters Fear Gas Prices as GOP Holds Narrow

61% of Texas Voters Fear Gas Prices as GOP Holds Narrow
Political Editor Savannah Witt
Published May 3, 2026

Sixty-one percent of Texas voters express deep concern over gasoline and energy prices, a sharp rise from 38 percent in February, as war in Iran pushes prices to $3.79 a gallon from $2.72 a year ago. This economic gloom dominates the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 registered voters conducted April 10-20 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percent. Republicans maintain slim edges in legislative and congressional ballots despite the downturn, but Democrats gain ground in U.S. Senate matchups.

Gas Prices Eclipse All Other Worries

Texas drivers feel the pinch hardest at the pump. The poll captures a 23-point jump in those "very concerned" about fuel costs since winter. Families now pay 39 percent more per gallon than last year, a direct hit tied to conflict disrupting oil supplies from the Middle East.

Everyday expenses follow close behind. Voters rank inflation and higher prices as the top issue at 15 percent, with the economy second at 9 percent. Concern levels hit 65 percent for grocery and goods prices, 63 percent for health care, and 53 percent for housing. These figures reflect broad pain points across urban and rural districts alike.

Texas Voters' Top Economic Concerns (Very Concerned)
IssuePercentage
Gasoline and energy61%
Everyday goods65%
Health care costs63%
Housing costs53%

Source: April 2026 UT/Texas Politics Project toplines.

National Economy Ratings Plunge Across Party Lines

Fifty-five percent of Texans view the national economy as worse than a year ago, against 27 percent who see improvement. This sour mood crosses party lines. Even Republicans soured, with positive assessments dropping from 62 percent to 46 percent better off.

Democrats and independents remain pessimistic, but the GOP shift signals vulnerability. Tariffs add to the burden: 55 percent report they hurt their household finances. Rising energy costs amplify this, especially in Texas, the nation's top oil producer. Voters blame external shocks like the Iran war, yet incumbents face the backlash.

The poll underscores how pocketbook issues override ideology. In a state where energy jobs sustain millions, sustained high prices erode support for status quo leadership.

2026 U.S. House Control · PARTY TO WINNov 2, 2026

2026 U.S. House Control

DemocratDemocrat78%
RepublicanRepublican22%

GOP Edges Hold in State Races, Senate Tilts Blue

Republicans lead the generic ballot for Texas Legislature 44 percent to 40 percent and U.S. House races 43 percent to 41 percent. Incumbents Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick fare better in head-to-heads.

Key 2026 Trial Heats
MatchupLeaderMargin
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) vs. Gina Hinojosa (D)Abbott44%-38%
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) vs. Vikki Goodwin (D)Patrick35%-31%
U.S. SenateDemocratsLead

Source: Poll toplines.

Abbott's six-point advantage over Hinojosa reflects his grip on suburban voters, even as economic woes mount. Patrick's narrower four-point lead over Goodwin exposes risks in rural turnout. Democrats flip the script in Senate races, where national headwinds favor challengers.

These margins sit within the poll's error range, hinting at volatility. Republicans bank on base mobilization, but crossover independents, hammered by prices, could decide outcomes.

Economic Headwinds Test GOP Dominance

Texas Republicans have ruled state government since 1997, but polls like this reveal cracks. Narrow leads persist because Democrats struggle to capitalize on discontent. Hinojosa and Goodwin, state representatives, poll as generic challengers, lacking statewide profile.

Gas prices at $3.79 strike drivers in sprawling suburbs and oil-patch towns hardest. A family filling a 15-gallon tank pays $57 today versus $41 last year, totaling hundreds extra monthly. This math resonates more than policy debates.

Yet GOP branding as economic stewards holds. Abbott touts energy independence; Patrick pushes tax cuts. Voters reward familiarity amid chaos. Democrats lead Senate heats because those races draw national money and anti-Trump energy, absent in state contests.

The disconnect favors incumbents short-term. If prices stabilize, Republicans expand leads. Prolonged war keeps pressure on.

Texas holds its 2026 primaries March 10. Runoff elections follow May 26. Economic trackers will shape attack ads by then.

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